Ye Ming and Ling Yonghui: Input-Output Model of Dual Circulation and Its Application

Release time:2020-11-27Author: Ye Ming,Ling Yonghui

Abstract: In the input-output analysis, this paper proposes a GDP decomposition method for "international and domestic dual circulation", decomposes GDP into three parts: internal circulation, dual circulation and pure external circulation, and analyzes China's participation in domestic and international circulation. The results show that China has begun to show the preliminary characteristics of "dual circulation", which is reflected in the gradual increase of the share of internal circulation and the decline of the proportion of participating in pure external circulation. Further cross-border comparative analysis shows that from the perspective of supply, in the field of agriculture and manufacturing, the pure external circulation share of most industries in the United States is significantly higher than that in China; from the demand side, although the dual circulation and pure external circulation of China and the United States have a return effect, the return share under the American economic circulation mode is significantly higher than that of China, which is more obvious in the field of American manufacturing. On this basis, the blocking points in China's economic circulation can be summarized into four aspects: First, the structural imbalance between the supply side product market and the factor market. Second, the demand side still has huge domestic demand potential to be tapped. Third, the coordinated development of ownership structure and regional economic structure in the system and mechanism is insufficient. Fourth, from the perspective of market integration, China's economy still has significant deficiencies in opening-up. Therefore, we should continue to deepen reform from the four aspects of supply, demand, system and mechanism and market integration, break through all blocking points of economic circulation, and lay a good foundation for building a new development pattern of dual circulation.